麥肯錫全球研究院：AI 將迫使美國 1,100 萬勞工轉換職業，七人中僅一人有直達路徑
Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States
摘要分析
麥肯錫全球研究院 2026 年 9 月 29 日發布 82 頁報告，估計到 2035 年 AI 與自動化將使美國勞動需求減少約 3,600 萬個工作當量，但結構性力量將創造逾 4,100 萬個，淨增約 500 萬。約 1,100 萬名勞工（占 7%，區間 600 萬至 1,600 萬）需轉換職業，集中在辦公行政、零售銷售與運輸物流，每年需約 77 萬人跨職業群轉換，是歷史平均的 3.6 倍。七人中僅一人有直達路徑；約 85% 成長職位要求證照，逾七成勞工需某種程度「重塑」。低薪勞工轉職機率是高薪者 7.6 倍；2022 年以來 AI 熟練度需求成長 11 倍。
- 2035 年前美國減少 3,600 萬、新增 4,100 萬工作，淨增 500 萬
- 約 1,100 萬人需轉換職業，是歷史轉換率的 3.6 倍
- 七人中僅一人有直達路徑，85% 成長職位需證照
- 低薪勞工轉職風險是高薪者的 7.6 倍
- AI 熟練度需求四年成長 11 倍
McKinsey Global Institute's 82-page report (September 29, 2026) estimates that AI and automation could reduce US labor demand by the equivalent of about 36 million jobs by 2035 while structural forces create more than 41 million, a net gain of about 5 million. Roughly 11 million workers (about 7% of the workforce; range 6–16 million) in declining occupations—concentrated in office/administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation—may need to switch occupations, requiring about 770,000 cross-group transitions a year, 3.6 times the historical average. Only one in seven has a direct pathway into growing work; about 85% of growing jobs require credentials or certifications, and more than 70% of workers will need some reinvention as tasks change. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely to need to transition. Demand for AI fluency has risen 11-fold since 2022, adaptability fivefold, and resilience, curiosity and willingness to learn threefold.
- 36M jobs lost vs 41M created by 2035; net +5M
- ~11M workers must switch occupations, 3.6x the historical rate
- Only one in seven has a direct pathway; 85% of growing jobs need credentials
- Low-wage workers 7.6x more likely to need to transition
- Demand for AI fluency up 11x since 2022
關鍵字：麥肯錫職業轉換技能路徑證照AI 熟練度
來源原文：https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/workforce-in-motion-skills-and-pathways-to-future-jobs-in-the-united-states
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